Institutional Macro Strategy
Audience: Asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, macro hedge funds
Value:
- Forward-calibrated recession probabilities for tactical allocation
- Scenario-based regime classification (soft landing vs. hard landing)
- Dynamic risk overlays driven by conditional Fed policy scenarios
Example: A global macro hedge fund adjusts equity duration and cross-market exposures based on MACRA's conditional NBER recession path under a two-cut policy scenario.
Credit Risk & Portfolio Stress Testing
Audience: Banks, insurance companies, risk officers
Value:
- Forward recession probability integrated into credit stress scenarios
- Enhanced loss provisioning frameworks and IFRS 9 alignment
- Reduced false positives compared to legacy CLI model
Example: A retail bank incorporates MACRA's FRI and Bi-LSTM outputs to simulate consumer delinquency escalation under deteriorating labour market sentiment.
Policy & Central Bank Advisory
Audience: Central banks, regulators, government economists
Value:
- Counterfactual simulations under conditional policy paths
- FRI enables insight into economic sentiment misalignment with real activity
- Scenario-aware briefings for rate, fiscal, and liquidity policy design
Example: A central bank integrates MACRA's real-time labour and sentiment trajectories to evaluate the impact of a delayed rate-cut cycle on credit access.
Narrative Monitoring & Behavioural Economics
Audience: Political economists, strategy teams, behavioural researchers
Value:
- PCA-based narrative tracking using NFIB, CEO confidence, and Beige Book tone
- Projection of FRI under consumer and media pessimism
- Sentiment divergence diagnostics with real economy activity
Example: A public communications team uses MACRA’s FRI spike detection to adjust narrative messaging during a stagflationary phase.
Research & Academia
Audience: Universities, think tanks, research institutes
Value:
- Modular design enables causal experimentation and macro factor testing
- Scenario modelling for policy analysis and publication
- Narrative sentiment inference for academic macro research
Example: An economics department uses MACRA’s LLM-enhanced PCA sentiment outputs in a study correlating consumer expectations with monetary policy reversals.
Market Risk, Counterparty Credit Risk (CCR), and Capital Forecasting
Audience: Investment banks, CCPs, clearing firms, capital strategy teams
Value:
Stress-Adjusted Market Risk Models
- Enhance VaR, stressed VaR, and Expected Shortfall with macro regime inputs
- Apply volatility and correlation scaling from MACRA's forward risk classification
CCR Modelling
- Adjust EE, PFE, and EPE using conditional NBER and FRI trajectories
- Align CCR model behavior with credit cycle transitions
Capital and Margin Optimization
- Improve IMM and SA-CCR buffers with regime-conditioned exposures
- Integrate macro-consistent CSA calibrations and margin procyclicality diagnostics
Example: An investment bank calibrates its margin models to reflect rising MACRA recession probability and tightens thresholds under credit-sensitive portfolios.
Call to Action:
Want to explore how MACRA.AI can support your macro strategy, capital risk models, or regulatory infrastructure?